Effects of Global Warming

Research by biologists Stephanie Jenouvrier, Hall Caswell, and et al. from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) has made some compelling implications and trends about the future of emperor penguins based on the rates of melting sea ice published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They used mathematical models to predict the effects of climate change on emperor penguins.  Some critical findings are listed below, along with general effects of climate change on emperor penguins:

·      Population size of emperor penguins colonized in the Terre Adelie, Antarctica, is likely to shrink by anywhere from 80 - 90% by the end of the century, bringing the numbers from the current 3,000 to only about 400 breeding pairs.

·      In the 1970s, one fluctuation in abundance of sea ice in Terre Adelie led to the decline of emperor penguin population by about 50%. Knowing this, there is a major concern in that these biologists have predicted these fluctuations to occur in more frequent manner over the next 100 years.

·       Absence and early break up of winter sea ice affects their survival rate because the emperor penguins depend on sea ice for breeding, feeding, and molting. Most breed on sea ice called fast ice, which attaches to the ice shelves and coastlines, and does not move in wind or currents. Fish species that are the main food source for these penguins depend on tiny crustaceans called krill, which thrive on algae growing underneath sea ice. With the melting of sea ice, comes the reduction in the availability of prey. Stable sea ice is necessary for emperor penguins during the molting period because during this period, they cannot survive for long in the water. All these factors affected by global warming threaten the survival rates of emperor penguins.

In order to avoid extinction, emperor penguins are needed to make changes and adapt to their unfortunate situation caused by global warming. These changes must include earlier breeding cycle and incubation period. Scientists and biologists involved in conservation work of emperor penguins hope that these penguins will adapt to the fast changing climate and conditions. However, unlike other Antarctic bird species that have shown alterations in their lifestyles, it is unlikely that emperor penguins will do the same. “They are long-lived organisms, so they adapt slowly. This is a problem because the climate is changing very fast”, says Jenouvrier.

The Antarctic Peninsula, where Terre Adelie live, have experienced the most pronounced climate change over the last 50 years. In the future, emperor penguins may have no chance of survival unless they are able to migrate to an alternative habitat. The Ross Sea, an area where sea ice has actually shown to increase over the years, might be the best and last resort for these penguins to avoid extinction.



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